A blog on US politics, Math, and Physics… with occasional bits of gaming

How well are voters' preferences converted into candidates?

Most voters have faced at least one election in which they disliked both candidates. Politicians necessarily have to prioritize between many competing interests, and representative democracy means that your ideal candidate (yourself?) might never appear on the ballot. Systemic attempts to manage this difficulty involve primaries, political parties, various systems of "checks & balances", ballot initiatives, referenda, public-comment periods, town-hall meetings, the ability to contact your representatives, and requirements for a supermajority vote - or to offload some tasks to a non-partisan civil service. Individual efforts to manage the choice between imperfect candidates must weigh the candidates' stances on various policy positions, the candidates' overall expertise & intelligence, and the candidates' performance in previous offices.

Many US elections require each voter to select a single candidate for each office, although a variety of other systems exist. The choice of electoral system can have substantial effects on the outcome of an election, by distinguishing preference based on candidate, party, or issues. The single-vote = single-candidate = single-district combination strongly reinforces the US's two dominant parties, especially with the addition of the winner-take-all and Electoral College systems the US favors.

In the US, voters appear resistant to persuasion in the general election, relying largely on partisan identity to determine who gets their vote. Persuasion is more effective when it is done via extended, personal conversations - criteria that don't combine well with mass media. Some populations are more amenable to persuasion, and experiments in the early days of a political campaign can help to identify persuadable groups. It is easier to manage voter turnout than to convert opponents. It is also easier to persuade voters during a primary, when they can't use partisan affiliation as a substitute for researching individual candidates and issues. The portion of voters willing to cross party lines appears to be decreasing.

Persuasive efforts on specific issues can help to shift society's concepts of "normal" versus "extreme" political views. Note also that there's no single concept of an "Overton window" defining the acceptable range of views. Individual voters and individual polities define their own ranges around each issue, based on the leaders and information they have. Individuals tend to exaggerate the similarities of their own views to those of the broader population.

Other articles in this series:

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How well do candidates represent the voters over other interests?

How should we design electoral districts?